Moldova’s pro-European Union president, Maia Sandu, celebrated her re-election victory on Monday, following a tense campaign marred by what she described as “unprecedented” interference from Russia. Sandu narrowly secured her second term with 55% of the vote, defeating Kremlin-aligned challenger Alexandr Stoianoglu. However, close results have prompted pro-Kremlin voices in Russia to immediately cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election.
Russian officials, including Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, criticized the voting process, alleging that Moldova’s overseas polling favored pro-EU voters in Europe, who typically support Sandu, over those in Russia, who may have leaned toward Stoianoglu. Senior Russian senator Andrey Klishas went a step further, accusing Moldova of “actively falsifying” the diaspora vote to ensure Sandu’s victory. “You count votes, see how many are missing for the ‘right’ candidate, and bring in the necessary number from overseas polling stations,” Klishas claimed on Monday.
Although the Kremlin officially denied any interference in Moldova’s election, accusations of Moscow’s attempts to manipulate the electoral process through disinformation, cyberattacks, and vote-buying have circulated widely. Moldovan government reported interference efforts targeting not only the presidential race but also an October referendum on enshrining Moldova’s EU membership ambitions in its constitution—a measure that passed with a razor-thin margin of less than 1%.
Russian Interests and Moldova’s Pro-European Shift
stakes in Moldova’s election are high, as the country continues its pivot toward the EU, a shift Russia sees as a direct threat to its influence in Eastern Europe. Moscow has a longstanding military presence in Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region within Moldova that borders Ukraine, which Moscow could use as a base for expanding operations into Moldova or as a strategic vantage point against Ukraine.
Earlier this year, Transnistrian officials requested Moscow’s “protection” from perceived threats from Moldova, echoing similar appeals from Ukraine’s Donbas region that Russia used as justification for its 2022 invasion. Additionally, the region of Gagauzia in southern Moldova has also shown loyalty to Moscow, with its leader regularly visiting Russia and meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Western Leaders Respond to Election Results
Following the election, U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated Sandu and declared that “Russia failed” in its attempt to undermine Moldova’s democracy. In her victory speech, Sandu acknowledged deep divisions within the country, pledging to be “president for all of you.” However, with parliamentary elections approaching next summer, Sandu faces pressure to address the internal divisions, which Moscow could exploit.
European leaders have called for a thorough investigation into Russia’s alleged election interference in Moldova. Lithuania’s foreign ministry tweeted a warning on Monday, urging the EU to support Moldova in probing Russia’s influence and holding perpetrators accountable. The recent election victory of Georgia’s pro-Russian Georgian Dream party amid similar interference claims has underscored the effectiveness of Moscow’s influence tactics across the region.
Regional Tensions and Ukraine’s War with Russia
Ukraine, a close ally of Moldova, welcomed Sandu’s victory, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulating her and committing to stronger bilateral ties. However, Moldova remains on edge as Russia escalates its military operations in Ukraine, with heavy attacks in Odesa and Ukraine’s Danube ports bringing conflict uncomfortably close to Moldova’s borders. On Monday, as Moldova tallied its final votes, Romanian fighter jets were scrambled to intercept Russian drones approaching less than 40 miles from Moldova’s southern border, illustrating the growing threat of war’s expansion.
Moldova’s Path Forward
Sandu’s re-election signals a continued commitment to European integration, but she faces a challenging road ahead. With Russian-backed regions like Transnistria and Gagauzia in Moldova openly supporting Moscow and an opposition emboldened by Russia’s backing, Moldova’s journey toward EU membership is far from assured.
As Moldova moves toward next year’s parliamentary elections, Moscow is likely to intensify its influence campaigns. Stakes for Moldova’s future are enormous, with Sandu’s leadership and Moldova’s EU path standing as symbolic bulwarks against Russia’s grip on Eastern Europe.
