The once seemingly unassailable grip of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime over Syria is facing a sudden and dramatic upheaval. Over the past week, opposition forces launched a stunning offensive that has pierced deep into regime-held territory, with rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), capturing large swaths of land in northern Syria, including parts of Aleppo.
This represents the most significant setback for Assad’s government since the early years of the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011. offensive, which began in Idlib province, swiftly overran regime defenses, leaving Aleppo vulnerable and triggering panic among pro-government forces. Social media reports have highlighted scenes of retreating Syrian soldiers and disarray within ranks of government-aligned militias.
Key Factors Behind Rebel Gains
- Withdrawal of Key Allies:
- The regime’s survival in the past decade has relied heavily on military and financial support from its allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. However, se allies have become overstretched:
- Hezbollah: Pulled back significant forces to southern Lebanon following its October 2023 confrontation with Israel. The group has suffered devastating losses, including the deaths of senior leaders, diminishing its capacity to support Assad.
- Russia: Distracted by the ongoing war in Ukraine, Moscow has reduced its involvement in Syria. The conflict has drained resources, leaving fewer assets to bolster Assad’s regime.
- Iran: Increasingly under attack from Israel, Tehran’s military advisors, and bases in Syria have been weakened, limiting its effectiveness in propping up Assad.
- Rebel Cohesion and Strategy:
Rebels, led by HTS, demonstrated a level of coordination and momentum not seen in years. Exploiting weakened government defenses and overstretched resources, y advanced with surprising speed, striking at critical regime strongholds.
- Fragile Domestic Conditions:
After years of war, economic collapse, and widespread corruption, morale among regime forces is at a low. Population in areas under government control is also fatigued, with many disillusioned by ongoing hardships and a lack of prospects for peace.
Historical Echoes in Hama
offensive has symbolic resonance. In 1982, Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, crushed a Muslim Brotherhood-led uprising in the city of Hama, killing thousands in a brutal show of force. Now, Hama finds itself in the crosshairs of advancing opposition forces. The city’s potential fall could mark a turning point in the conflict and highlight the vulnerability of a regime once thought unshakable.
Implications for Region
sudden collapse of regime positions in northern Syria could have far-reaching consequences:
- Humanitarian Crisis: conflict has already displaced millions, and renewed fighting is likely to exacerbate the crisis.
- Geopolitical Shifts: A weakened Assad may force his remaining allies to reassess their commitments. Meanwhile, regional players like Turkey and Israel may adjust ir strategies to capitalize on the regime’s vulnerability.
- Rebel Momentum: A successful advance into central Syria could embolden opposition forces and potentially reshape decade-long conflict.
What Comes Next?
While the rebel offensive represents a significant blow to Assad’s regime, the situation remains fluid. Damascus retains control of much of central and southern Syria, and it is unclear whether this setback will prompt a more robust counteroffensive by Assad’s allies or signal the regime’s long-term decline.
For now, the once-dominant narrative of regime stability has been shattered, raising questions about the future of Syria’s war and its leadership.
