U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has called on Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations by the end of the year, warning that the next U.S. administration may struggle to secure necessary Senate support for such a historic deal. Graham, an influential Republican and close ally of former President Donald Trump, spoke in Jerusalem about diminishing chances of successfully brokering a treaty if negotiations stretch beyond President Biden’s term.
“We can get you a treaty through Senate between the United States and Saudi Arabia, a defense agreement like you have in Japan and Australia if you do it on President Biden’s watch,” Graham said, urging both nations to seize the opportunity.
Biden administration has been working tirelessly to mediate a normalization agreement between two regional powers, which would include U.S. security guarantees for Saudi Arabia and various bilateral agreements with Washington. A deal would mark a significant diplomatic achievement, expanding on the Abraham Accords that saw Israel normalize relations with several Arab states. However, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has made it clear that the kingdom’s recognition of Israel hinges on the establishment of a Palestinian state.
In a shift from earlier this year, the Crown Prince’s September speech highlighted the kingdom’s steadfast stance on Palestinian statehood. In February, sources indicated that Saudi Arabia might have been willing to accept a less binding political commitment from Israel regarding Palestinian statehood in exchange for a defense pact with the U.S. However, ongoing instability, particularly the recent escalation in Gaza, has cast doubt over the feasibility of reaching such an agreement anytime soon.
Biden administration, to incentivize Saudi Arabia’s recognition of Israel, has offered security guarantees, support for a civilian nuclear program, and a renewed push for Palestinian statehood. Yet, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, exacerbated by recent violence, has complicated efforts to move negotiations forward.
Growing Tensions Between U.S. and Israel Over Strategic Clarity
Meanwhile, reports have emerged that the Biden administration is losing confidence in Israel’s transparency regarding its military and diplomatic plans. According to U.S. officials speaking to Axios, trust between Washington and Tel Aviv is “very low right now,” with growing concerns about Israel’s handling of both its military operations and its approach to regional diplomacy.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan reportedly communicated to Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer that the U.S. expects greater “clarity and transparency” regarding Israel’s strategic intentions, particularly following Iran’s recent ballistic missile attacks on Israel. The message conveyed was a warning: if the U.S. is not fully informed about Israel’s potential military responses, particularly regarding Iran, it may not automatically join any coalition defending Israel in the event of further hostilities. However, U.S. officials admitted that this warning might not hold in practice, as the U.S. would likely support Israel in the event of an escalation.
Concerns were also raised about Israel’s latest military operation in northern Gaza, where evacuation orders for civilians have sparked fears of permanent displacement—despite Israel’s reassurances to Washington that such outcomes would not occur.
“y tells us what we want to hear— the problem is lack of trust,” a U.S. official commented, pointing to the growing rift between the Biden administration and the Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Impact of Regional Uncertainty on Saudi-Israel Talks
instability surrounding the Gaza conflict and the U.S.’s faltering trust in Israeli decision-making has cast a shadow over a potential Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. Saudi Arabia, which has long been a key factor in the Middle East, remains firm in its stance on Palestinian statehood, while Israel faces mounting internal and external challenges.
The Outcome of the diplomatic efforts will likely depend on how the Gaza situation evolves and where both Riyadh and Tel Aviv can come to an understanding that balances security, regional stability, and aspirations of the Palestinian people.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election looms, the Biden administration is racing against the clock to secure a breakthrough. But with regional tensions running high and opposition within both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, a successful agreement remains uncertain.
