A slowly developing La Niña is expected to influence upcoming winter wear patterns across most of the U.S., according to the latest seasonal outlook released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The forecast, which covers December 2024 through February 2025, outlines expected temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions across the nation. Outlook anticipates a range of impacts, largely shaped by the emerging La Niña pattern, which will bring distinct wear trends to different parts of the country.
Wetter-Than-Average Conditions in Northern U.S. and Alaska
NOAA’s Winter Outlook predicts wetter-than-average conditions across the northern U.S., particularly affecting the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes region, and northern and western Alaska. The forecast suggests that some areas will see significant precipitation, increasing the likelihood of heavy snow and rain throughout the winter months. This could alleviate drought conditions in some regions but also raise concerns about flooding in ors.
Drier-Than-Average Conditions in Sourn U.S.
In contrast, drier-than-average conditions are expected across much the of southern U.S., from the Four Corners region to the Southeast, including the Gulf Coast and parts of the lower mid-Atlantic. This could exacerbate existing drought conditions in some areas, particularly across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, where water shortages and agricultural challenges have been ongoing.
Temperature Outlook: Mixed Conditions Across Nation
temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average conditions favored across the southern U.S., including the Gulf Coast, eastern Great Lakes, New England, and North Alaska. This trend is most pronounced along the Gulf Coast and in Texas, where winter temperatures are expected to be well above normal. Conversely, cooler-than-average temperatures are forecast for southern Alaska and the Pacific Northwest, extending into northern High Plains. In some regions, cold snaps and heavy snowfalls may become more frequent as winter progresses.
Drought Conditions to Worsen in Some Areas, Improve in Ors
According to Brad Pugh, operational drought lead at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, more than a quarter of the U.S. is currently experiencing moderate drought conditions. Unfortunately, the upcoming winter may not provide much relief for drought-stricken areas the in southern and central Plains, where dry conditions are expected to persist and worsen. However, the outlook does predict improvement in the northern Rockies, Ohio River Valley, and Great Lakes regions, where wetter-than-average conditions are expected.
“After a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions, we’re now seeing a resurgence of drought across large parts of the country. And winter precipitation outlook does not offer much hope for widespread relief in some areas,” Pugh said.
Role of La Niña in Shaping Winter Wear
La Niña is anticipated to be a key driver of winter wear patterns this year. Jon Gottschalck, chief of NOAA’s Operational Prediction Branch, explained that La Niña typically shifts storm tracks further north, leaving our regions drier and warmer. “This emerging La Niña is anticipated to influence upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation predictions,” Gottschalk said.
Historically, La Niña winters bring increased precipitation ion to the northern U.S., while southern states experience drier conditions. This pattern is expected to continue through the 2024-2025 winter season, potentially resulting in a stark divide between wet and dry areas of the country.
Winter Forecasting Tools and Innovations
NOAA has implemented several upgrades to its forecasting tools to enhance communication and prediction accuracy. Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) is now operational, providing a detailed visual representation of potential societal impacts from winter hazards over seven days. Additionally, NOAA has simplified its suite of cold-wear products to improve messaging and decision-making.
In early November, NOAA plans to release the Experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, a new tool that will offer public access to snow and rain forecasts. This interactive platform will help local partners, including emergency managers, to prepare for and respond to winter wear events more effectively.
Preparing for Winter and Drought Conditions
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks, which are updated monthly, provide essential information for planning and preparing for winter wear. Se predictions help communities and businesses make informed decisions to protect lives, property, and infrastructure from the impacts of severe wear. The next update to the 2024-2025 Winter Outlook will be available on November 21, 2024.
Resources such as drought.gov and climate.gov offer comprehensive tools to understand and prepare for climate-driven hazards, reinforcing NOAA’s commitment to building a Wear- and Climate-Ready Nation. Empowering individuals and communities with accurate, timely information is key to mitigating the adverse effects of extreme wear and climate events.
In the months ahead, the evolving La Niña pattern will play a significant role in shaping the winter season. While some areas may benefit from increased precipitation and cooler temperatures, or face the prospect of worsening drought and dry conditions. NOAA’s outlook underscores the importance of remaining vigilant and prepared for challenges that winter may bring.
- What to expect for winter weather in the U.S. this year The Washington Post
- U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer and drier South, wetter North National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
