TOKYO, October 27, 2024 — Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is projected to fall short of a single-party majority after a closely contested snap election, raising questions about the future governance of the world’s third-largest economy. Exit polls suggest LDP will win between 153 and 219 seats in Diet’s 465-seat lower house, significantly below the 233 needed for a majority. LDP’s previous coalition partner, Komeito, may also struggle to gain enough seats to jointly secure control, leaving uncertainty over whether y will be able to form a government without seeking new partners.
Snap election comes just days after Shigeru Ishiba, a seasoned politician and former defense minister, assumed leadership of LDP and the role of prime minister following his predecessor Fumio Kishida’s sudden resignation in August. Facing record-low approval ratings after multiple corruption scandals, Ishiba called the election in a bid to secure a fresh mandate and regain public trust.
Political Scandals and Economic Pressures Erode LDP’s Base
LDP’s reputation has been battered by a series of high-profile scandals. The party has come under fire for ties to the Unification Church, criticized by some as a “cult” for its influence over lawmakers. More damaging still is a political funding scandal that has ensnared dozens of LDP lawmakers, who are under investigation for allegedly pocketing proceeds from political fundraising events, with accusations involving millions of dollars. Sex scandals have led to the dissolution of several powerful factions within the party, weakening its traditional internal structure and damaging its public image.
“People are struggling to make ends meet, yet they see politicians involved in tax evasion and or forms of corruption,” said Michiko Hamada, a resident of Urawa who attended an opposition rally. “It feels unforgivable.”
Economic Struggles Complicate Election Landscape
Japan’s economy, marked by stagnant wages for three decades—termed “lost 30 years”—has recently been hit by record-high inflation, particularly affecting food and everyday essentials. Rising costs for food, pharmaceuticals, and utilities have driven widespread frustration among Japanese citizens. Pensioner Chie Shimizu, for instance, reported working part-time to make ends meet due to price hikes that have outpaced modest increases in hourly wages.
According to government data, wages have not kept up with inflation, leading many to struggle with the rising cost of living. “I’m paying 10,000 to 20,000 yen more on food each month,” said Ms. Hamada. “I’ve had to cut back, yet I still spend more. Even simple items like fruit have become very expensive.”
Economic challenges have left many Japanese voters disillusioned with both the ruling and opposition parties. Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the main opposition party, has failed to capture public confidence, entering the election with an approval rating of just 6.6%. “opposition doesn’t stand out at all,” said Miyuki Fujisaki, a long-time LDP supporter who expressed doubts about available political alternatives.
Next Steps for LDP and Japan’s Political Future
In the wake of the election, Prime Minister Ishiba is expected to engage in coalition negotiations to secure enough seats to maintain power. His new administration may be tasked with addressing both the economic struggles of everyday Japanese citizens and the corruption scandals that have plagued LDP in recent years. Analysts suggest that Ishiba’s focus on coalition-building will be pivotal for political stability, particularly as opposition parties, despite ir low popularity, will likely pressure LDP to take decisive action on economic reforms.
As coalition discussions loom, observers are cautious about Japan’s political and economic future. For now, citizens across Japan await signs of meaningful change from the party, hoping for improved economic conditions and accountability in government.
