The relationship between India and Bangladesh, once a model of regional cooperation in South Asia, is now mired in uncertainty as political and social tensions escalate on both sides of the border. Recent developments, including India’s sheltering of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and contentious debates over minority rights, have cast a shadow over historically strong ties between the two nations.
Roots of Tensions
strain in relations intensified following the dramatic ousting of Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, after widespread protests led by student groups calling for democratic reforms. Hasina, who led Bangladesh for 15 years under the Awami League, fled to India, where she was reportedly granted refuge by the Indian government.
India’s open support for Hasina has led to accusations of interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs, with many viewing it as an affront to the sovereignty of the interim government led by economist Muhammad Yunus. This perception was further fueled when India’s Ministry of External Affairs called for a fair trial for Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, following the controversial arrest of a Hindu priest accused of sedition.
Shafi Md Mostofa, an associate professor at the University of Dhaka, warned that India’s actions risk undermining its credibility in Bangladesh. “While concerns about minority rights are valid, addressing them through public statements rather than diplomatic channels creates mistrust and weakens bilateral ties,” he said.
Border Security and Rising Rhetoric
Tensions spilled over into border security issues as inflammatory remarks from Bangladeshi interim government adviser Mahfuz Alam exacerbated the situation. In a now-deleted social media post, Alam accused India of “ghettoizing” populations in border states like West Bengal and Tripura, even threatening territorial annexation.
In response, India increased security measures along its northeastern border, disrupting cross-border trade and travel. Thousands of Bangladeshi nationals, many of whom depend on Indian hospitals for medical care, have been affected by the scaling back of visa operations.
Rhetoric on both sides has also fueled nationalist sentiments. Protests in Kolkata last month saw Hindu activists burning effigies of Muhammad Yunus, accusing him of failing to protect Hindu minorities. Meanwhile, Indian media has been accused of sensationalizing minority issues in Bangladesh to stoke domestic outrage.
A Diplomatic Dilemma
India’s concerns over the safety of Bangladesh’s Hindu community are genuine, says Geoffrey Macdonald of the United States Institute of Peace. “Hindus in Bangladesh have faced discrimination and sporadic violence, which seems to have intensified following Hasina’s departure,” he noted.
However, Macdonald cautioned that India’s public stance could backfire. “Dhaka interprets Delhi’s rhetoric as an attempt to undermine its sovereignty. What is needed now is quiet diplomacy, not public posturing.”
Efforts to de-escalate tensions are underway. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri recently visited Dhaka for high-level talks with Yunus and his advisers, signaling some willingness for dialogue. Still, the trust deficit remains significant.
Path Ahead
Observers warn that the next six months will be critical for the future of India-Bangladesh relations. Key issues, including the formation of a new Bangladeshi government, constitutional reforms, and voting rights, are in flux, adding to uncertainty.
For India, the challenge lies in balancing its strategic interests with respect for Bangladesh’s sovereignty. Pavan Chaurasia, a research fellow at India Foundation, emphasized the need for a measured approach. “India must keep communication channels open and avoid actions that could alienate Bangladesh further,” he said.
At the same time, Bangladesh’s interim government faces mounting pressure to address domestic issues, particularly the safety and rights of minority groups. Failure to do so could further strain relations with India and deepen divisions within the country.
A Region on Edge
stakes are high for both nations as they navigate this delicate period. With family and cultural ties spanning the border, many in West Bengal and Bangladesh worry about the long-term consequences of this discord. As tensions linger, the region watches anxiously, hoping for a resolution that preserves the historic friendship between India and Bangladesh.
