Tel Aviv, Oct. 26, 2024 — Early Saturday morning, Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian military sites in what it described as a response to more than a year of Iranian-orchestrated attacks on Israeli assets across the Middle East. This escalation has heightened concerns of a direct conflict between two of the region’s most powerful militaries and drawn international attention to the potential for a full-scale war.
In a statement issued at 2:30 a.m. local time, the Israeli military confirmed it had “conducted precise strikes on military targets in Iran.” Israeli officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said over 100 combat aircraft targeted air defense systems and missile production sites across Iran, Syria, and Iraq. Strikes ended around 6 a.m. local time, marking Israel’s most extensive direct operation against Iran in recent history.
Iran’s Response: Minimizing Impact
Iran’s national air defense force downplayed the yed impact of strikes, stating that its air defenses had limited damage. Iranian military spokespersons confirmed that Israel had struck bases in Tehran, Ilam, and Khuzestan, with damage mostly contained, although two Iranian soldiers were killed. Tehran remained untouched, according to Iranian media, and civilian airports continued operations as usual.
Reports from Iranian news agencies highlighted that while blasts were visible from Tehran, the city itself had not been directly hit. Still, airstrikes on its outskirts brought conflict uncomfortably close for Tehran’s residents, marking a new level of tension between the two countries.
U.S. and International Reactions
Pentagon stated that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had been informed of Israel’s plans. Sean Savett, a spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, confirmed that the U.S. had been apprised of Israel’s intention to conduct targeted strikes on military sites and advised restraint to prevent further escalation. While Washington has historically supported Israel, there has been growing international pressure on both sides to avoid actions that could ignite a larger regional war.
Years of Underlying Tensions Boil Over
the conflict has roots in a long-standing proxy war. Over the past year, Israel and Iran have increased their attacks on each other’s assets, particularly following a 2023 incident in which a Hamas-led attack in Israel triggered a heavy Israeli response in Gaza. Since then, Iranian-backed proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, have escalated strikes against Israel, leading to tit-for-tat responses that have strained an already volatile situation in the Middle East.
Just last month, Israel experienced a barrage of ballistic missiles from Iran in retaliation for assassinations of Iranian commanders in Syria. Israel’s defense systems intercepted several of the rockets, but the incident caused widespread civilian anxiety as millions took cover in bomb shelters.
Regional Ramifications: Escalating Proxy Battles
Israel’s recent actions are part of a larger pattern of intensified engagements involving Iranian-backed groups across the region. Following Hamas’s assault last year, Hezbollah, Houthis, and various Syrian factions aligned with Iran increased their operations against Israel. The Israeli military has responded with force, and each strike by their party has led to further retaliation, escalating the possibility of an all-out war.
In response to heightened tensions, Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesperson, emphasized that any further provocation from Iran would be met with immediate and strong countermeasures. “We have no intention to change our civil defense orders, but we stand ready to respond as necessary,” Hagari stated in a press briefing Saturday morning.
Iran’s Dilemma: Retaliate or de-escalate?
For Iran, the situation is delicate. While Tehran has yet to signal a strong retaliatory move, analysts suggest that the decision to escalate could risk severe economic repercussions, which Iran, facing significant domestic unrest and economic hardship, is ill-equipped to handle. Iran’s political scene is also in flux, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, reportedly in frail health, navigates a contentious leadership succession process.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director for International Crisis Group, noted that Tehran’s military response might be tempered. “While the desire to retaliate is strong, financial and political implications make a large-scale response unlikely at this time,” Vaez said.
However, powerful Iranian factions, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), have advocated for a more aggressive stance, potentially complicating Iran’s restraint.
Implications for Israeli and Iranian Deterrence Strategy
Analysts have described the latest developments as indicative of a “new phase” in the ongoing shadow war between Israel and Iran. By directly targeting Iran’s military infrastructure, Israel signals a willingness to disrupt long-standing proxy engagements between the two countries and pursue a more direct form of deterrence. Whether Iran absorbs this setback or responds remains unclear, but both sides appear wary of committing to a full-scale war.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East Program at Chatham House, cautioned that the situation may yet de-escalate if Iran chooses to heed U.S. and European calls for restraint and leverage diplomatic channels. “Iran may see an opportunity to avoid a larger conflict, especially given uncertainty in the upcoming U.S. election,” Vakil observed.
Next Steps: Fragile Peace or Regional War?
With Iranian-backed factions active across the Middle East, from Lebanon to Yemen, the potential for further escalation remains significant. Both countries seem eager to maintain the deterrence effect without tipping into full-blown conflict. As Israel’s multi-front offensive continues, regional players are watching closely for signs of what many worry could become an open and devastating war.
