Beirut, January 11, 2025 — After decades of dominating Lebanon’s political and military landscape, Hezbollah’s once-unshakable hold is showing signs of significant erosion. A combination of military losses, shifting regional alliances, and internal political shifts has left the Shiite militant group and its patron, Iran, grappling with a new and uncertain reality.
Changing Dynamics in Lebanon
election of General Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s new president marked a turning point, ending years of political gridlock often attributed to Hezbollah’s influence. Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Aoun is seen by many as a stabilizing figure whose rise signals a concession by Hezbollah, acknowledging its inability to maintain its previous levels of control.
“This is a new political reality,” said Mohanad Hage Ali of Carnegie Middle East Center. “Tide has turned, though it will take time for full impact to unfold.”
Since it emerged as both a political and militant powerhouse, Hezbollah has wielded unparalleled influence in Lebanon. It commanded a vast arsenal, controlled critical infrastructure, and operated an extensive social services network that won the loyalty of Lebanon’s Shiite population.
However, the group has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months. A prolonged and costly conflict with Israel decimated its leadership, depleted its arsenal, and left Lebanon facing a multibillion-dollar reconstruction bill.
Hezbollah’s defeat has undermined its long-standing claim as Lebanon’s sole defender against Israeli aggression—a key pillar of its political narrative.
Regional Shifts Impact Hezbollah and Iran
Hezbollah’s challenges are compounded by shifting power dynamics in the Middle East. Syrian rebels recently ousted President Bashar al-Assad, severing Hezbollah’s primary land route for weapons and funds. Assad’s regime, long a key ally for Hezbollah and Iran, had provided crucial support for a shared agenda of regional resistance against Israel.
The Fall of Assad has also left Iran, Hezbollah’s principal benefactor, in a precarious position. Tehran’s influence through its so-called Axis of Resistance—comprising Hezbollah and or militias—has unraveled amid escalating tensions with Israel and direct military confrontations.
Sami Nader, director of the Political Sciences Institute at Saint Joseph University, noted that Hezbollah’s diminished military capabilities and discredited narrative are clear signs of its waning power. “Politically, Hezbollah will have to start paying the price for its weakening position,” Nader said.
A Fragile Political Landscape
Despite its setbacks, Hezbollah remains a dominant force in Lebanon, largely due to the country’s fragmented political system and ongoing dysfunction. Thursday’s parliamentary vote to elect Aoun was marred by shouting matches, underscoring deep divisions among Lebanon’s political factions.
Experts agree that while Hezbollah’s influence has diminished, it retains a significant base of support and military capability. However, its weakened state reflects broader changes in the Middle East that are reshaping power dynamics.
For Lebanon, the hope is that the election of a new president will provide a pathway toward greater stability. For Hezbollah, it signals the end of an era in which its dominance was unquestioned.
As the country enters this new chapter, it remains to be seen how Hezbollah will navigate its reduced influence and where Lebanon can chart a course toward a more balanced political future.
- Lebanon Turns a Political Page as Hezbollah’s Hold Is Weakened The New York Times
- Lebanon’s PM vows to disarm country’s south after new president threatens Hezbollah The Times of Israel
- Who is Joseph Aoun, the new president of Lebanon? Al Jazeera English
