Donald Trump’s apparent victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has set the stage for significant changes in federal artificial intelligence (AI) policy, beginning with plans to repeal the comprehensive AI Executive Order introduced by President Joe Biden in October 2023. This move could have wide-reaching implications for the U.S. tech sector, impacting everything from AI development regulations to international trade policies that directly affect critical technology resources.
Biden’s Executive Order on AI: What’s at Stake?
The Biden administration’s Executive Order was one of the most extensive AI regulatory measures to date, establishing the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI) to monitor AI technologies. It mandated companies to disclose training methodologies and security protocols and tasked the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) with creating industry guidelines for detecting and addressing AI model vulnerabilities.
Se efforts aimed to enhance accountability and safety in AI technology, addressing concerns about security and ethical use. However, Biden’s AI policy has faced criticism from members of the Republican party who argue that such regulations could hamper innovation. In particular, Representative Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) warned that reporting requirements might stifle technological advancements, while Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) framed NIST’s AI guidelines as restrictive measures that could curb free speech.
Given this opposition, Trump’s promise to dismantle Biden’s AI policy framework could mean an end to federally mandated AI oversight through AISI, leaving the future of U.S. AI regulation uncertain.
Trade Policies and AI Technology Access
Beyond deregulation, Trump’s approach to international trade could also have significant effects on AI development within the United States. Trump has pledged to implement a 10 percent tariff on all U.S. imports, with a particular focus on China, which would see tariffs raised to 60 percent. Such a move could disrupt the AI sector’s access to GPUs and or hardware essential for AI training and model development, as China is a key supplier of the components. Additionally, Trump may reinforce restrictions on exporting AI technology to China, complicating access to U.S.-based cloud services and AI chips.
Implications for H-1B Visas and Energy Access
Trump’s stance on H-1B visas may further complicate matters for AI companies by limiting their access to international talent, particularly in highly specialized AI roles where demand often outpaces domestic supply. Similarly, his push to expand oil and gas production could have indirect effects on AI companies, as high energy requirements are often essential for large-scale AI training, making stable energy access crucial for sustained AI development.
Potential Repeal of CHIPS Act
A potential repeal or revision of the CHIPS and Science Act also looms. House Speaker Mike Johnson, an ally of Trump, recently suggested that legislation — a Biden initiative designed to boost domestic semiconductor production — could be either repealed or streamlined under a Republican-led administration. Though Johnson faced pushback from Democrats, a rollback of this act would have significant repercussions for the U.S. AI sector, which relies on an accessible supply of semiconductors for model training and data processing.
A Role for State-Level Regulation?
As federal oversight may diminish under Trump, some experts suggest that individual states could take the lead on regulating AI. States like Tennessee, Colorado, and California have already begun establishing AI-specific regulations. Tennessee passed laws prohibiting unauthorized AI voice cloning, while California’s legislation requires companies to disclose training details for certain AI models and introduced anti-deepfake protections for actors. Se state-level initiatives indicate that without federal guidance, a patchwork of state-specific AI regulations could emerge, potentially complicating compliance for AI companies operating nationwide.
Musk’s Potential Influence in a Deregulated AI Landscape
Billionaire Elon Musk, a vocal supporter of Trump’s campaign through substantial donations, could play an influential role in shaping AI policy under the new administration. Musk’s AI company, xAI, along with his ventures like Tesla and SpaceX, may benefit from reduced regulatory oversight. As a proponent of “free speech AI,” Musk has publicly expressed concerns about regulation stifling innovation and could find a receptive ear in Trump’s administration.
A Return to Trump’s AI Policies?
In his previous term, Trump’s AI policy focused on promoting research while maintaining a lighter regulatory hand. Through executive orders, Trump prioritized AI research initiatives, tasked federal agencies with advancing AI in ways consistent with American values, and emphasized civil liberties. Se orders, however, were crafted during a period when AI advancements like ChatGPT and image synthesis models were not as pervasive as they are today.
In response to the accelerated evolution of AI technologies, Trump allies within America First Policy Institute have floated ideas for a new executive order that would position the U.S. as a global AI leader through deregulation and investment in AI-driven military initiatives. He is also speculating that Trump’s administration could champion large-scale AI projects reminiscent of the Manhattan Project, intended to advance military and defense capabilities.
Looking Ahead: A Shifting AI Regulatory Landscape
While Trump has offered few specifics on how he would approach AI development beyond a broad emphasis on “free speech and human flourishing,” his actions could shift the U.S. from a heavily regulated AI landscape to one where companies face fewer restrictions. This change may fuel rapid innovation but also raise questions about ethical considerations and safety, particularly in AI applications with high societal impacts.
With significant deregulation likely on the horizon, the U.S. AI industry could be entering a period of accelerated growth but may also face challenges in navigating an increasingly fragmented regulatory environment. As the transition unfolds, tech companies and policymakers alike will be watching closely to see how Trump’s administration shapes the future of AI in the United States.
