In a stunning turn of events, Sheikh Hasina, former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, was ousted from power following weeks of intense protests and civil unrest. On August 5, 2024, Hasina fled her homeland in a hurried and chaotic exit, landing at a military base near Delhi, India. What was initially expected to be a brief stay has now stretched on, with Hasina reportedly seeking asylum in countries like UK, US, and UAE — all of which have yet to approve her requests.
Hasina’s presence in India has left New Delhi in a delicate diplomatic position. For 15 years, under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh was a close strategic ally for India. relationship between two countries was critical for border security, especially in India’s norastern region, and was bolstered by significant trade relations. Hasina had cracked down on insurgent groups and amicably settled border disputes, while trade flourished between two nations, with India gaining vital access to Bangladesh’s ports, rivers, and railways.
However, tide has turned. With emergence of an interim government in Bangladesh, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, India must now tread carefully. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has already initiated contact with interim leaders, but India’s past support for Hasina complicates relationship. Many in Bangladesh hold India responsible for supporting a leader accused of suppressing opposition and orchestrating disputed elections.
A Strategic Setback for India
For India, ousting of Hasina is more than just removal of an ally; it represents a challenge to its broader regional strategy. India’s “neighbourhood first” policy has already faced hurdles with election of Mohamed Muizzu in Maldives, who won on an anti-India platform, and rising resistance in Nepal. Losing influence in Bangladesh could furr undermine India’s standing as a regional power, especially as China seeks to expand its footprint in South Asia.
“Turbulence in Bangladesh represents a strategic setback for India,” said Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka. “Delhi must adapt quickly to ensure it doesn’t lose ground in a region where China is also jostling for influence.”
interim government in Bangladesh, while keen to maintain a cordial relationship with India, is aware of growing public discontent over Delhi’s long-standing support for Hasina. “India needs to introspect and rethink its regional policy,” remarked Debapriya Bhattacharya, a senior economist with Centre for Policy Dialogue in Dhaka. Bhattacharya, who heads a committee appointed by interim government to assess Bangladesh’s economy, noted that India’s failure to engage with or political factions, especially opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was a misstep that Delhi must correct.
Shifting Dynamics with BNP
potential rise of BNP poses a diplomatic challenge for India. BNP, led by Khaleda Zia, has a fraught history with India, particularly during its last tenure from 2001 to 2006. Accusations of harboring insurgents and failing to protect Hindu minorities marred relationship between two countries. However, BNP leaders are signaling a willingness to reset ties, acknowledging India’s strategic importance while pushing for a more balanced partnership.
“India cannot afford to continue alienating us,” said Abdul Moyeen Khan, a senior BNP leader. “It’s time for a policy shift on Delhi’s part, and we are ready to move forward.”
Yet, this shift will require careful diplomacy. India must address long-standing trust deficit with BNP while ensuring that Bangladesh’s internal turmoil does not destabilize broader region. Additionally, water-sharing disputes, particularly over rivers like Gumti, remain sensitive issues, furr complicating bilateral relationship.
China Factor
As India recalibrates its approach to Bangladesh, it must also contend with China’s growing presence in region. China has made significant inroads in South Asia, with its influence extending to Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. Beijing is likely to see Bangladesh’s political transition as an opportunity to expand its economic and strategic ties with country.
“Competition for influence between India and China in South Asia is intensifying,” said a senior analyst. “Delhi must be vigilant in its approach to Bangladesh or risk losing anor key ally in region.”
Conclusion
With Sheikh Hasina’s future uncertain and India caught between honoring a former ally and building new relationships in Dhaka, coming months will be pivotal for both nations. New Delhi must strike a balance between maintaining its influence and respecting Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape, all while countering China’s growing ambitions in region.
