A 13-year Syrian civil war erupted anew last Friday as opposition forces, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seized control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, in a swift and unexpected offensive. Images of a Turkish flag draped over the medieval Aleppo Citadel quickly circulated, symbolizing the extent of Ankara’s influence in a fractured nation.
The advance of HTS, a group designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and ors, was reportedly carried out with the support of Turkish-backed factions. Following this move, an assault was launched on Tel Rifaat, a strategically vital town controlled by Syrian Kurdish forces.
Turkey’s Strategic Maneuvers
Analysts suggest that Turkey’s tacit approval enabled the offensive. Gönül Tol, director of the Middle East Institute, noted that such a large-scale operation could not have occurred without Ankara’s consent. “Turkey saw an opportunity to weaken Assad, counter Iranian influence, and bolster its role in future negotiations,” she said.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his government have not officially claimed involvement. However, Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, dismissed claims of direct intervention as speculative, stating, “It would be wrong to explain away events in Syria as a foreign intervention.”
Despite this, Turkey’s motivations align with the offensive’s outcomes. Ankara has long aimed to curb Kurdish militant presence near its border, seeing gr ps ke the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as an extensioof ns the f Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey regards as a terrorist organization.
Shifting Alliances and International Implications
Turkey’s actions complicate its relationships with global powers. The United States, which supports Kurdish-led SDF in its fight against ISIS, has repeatedly clashed with Ankara over Syria policy. This renewed conflict could further strain NATO ties.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s collaboration with Russia, an ally of Assad, is being tested. Moscow and Ankara brokered a ceasefire in Idlib in 2020, but the latest developments suggest fractures in this uneasy partnership. Hanna Notte, an expert on Eurasia, observed that “Putin is likely displeased” with Turkey’s recent moves, although both countries remain vital players in determining Syria’s future.
Turkey’s Role in Rebel Stronghold
While Turkey labels HTS as a terrorist organization, it has effectively supported the survival of Idlib, HTS’s base of operations. Thousands of Turkish troops and allied factions, known collectively as the Syrian National Army (SNA), operate in Turkish-controlled areas of northern Syria. Analysts highlight growing cooperation between HTS and SNA, underscoring Turkey’s influence in orchestrating opposition forces.
Looking Ahead
Aleppo offensive raises questions about the future of Syria’s conflict. Turkey’s actions appear to position Erdoğan as a decisive player in the region, countering both Assad and Kurdish forces while navigating complex ties with Russia and the West.
For now, swift rebel victories have disrupted the fragile status quo in Syria, reigniting a conflict many hoped was winding down. With multiple actors vying for control, the path to peace remains as elusive as ever.
- Syrian forces regroup with help from Iran, and Russia after shock rebel advance The Washington Post.
- Rebel offensive boosts Turkey’s influence in Syria Financial Times
