Tunisia is grappling with the aftermath of what appears to be a landslide victory for incumbent President Kais Saied, despite a notably low voter turnout in Sunday’s presidential election. Preliminary results released by the country’s electoral commission on Monday show Saied capturing 90.7% of the vote, with only 28.8% of eligible voters casting ballots. Figures reflect deep divisions within the North African nation, where accusations of electoral manipulation, judicial interference, and repression of opposition candidates have clouded the election process.
Saied, widely criticized for his authoritarian style since dissolving parliament and dismissing the prime minister in July 2021, wasted little time in outlining the implications of his renewed mandate. During a televised address, the president referred to his victory as a “continuation of the revolution,” pledging to “cleanse the country of corrupt, traitors, and conspirators.” His words signal a hardline stance likely to exacerbate tensions in a nation already reeling from economic decline and political turmoil.
Protests and Power Consolidation
In the lead-up to the election, scattered protests resurfaced in the capital, Tunis, marking a resurgence of public dissent against Saied’s sweeping consolidation of power. Demonstrators accused the president of dismantling civil liberties, stifling free speech, and persecuting his political opponents. Rights groups have voiced concerns over the clampdown on dissent, citing widespread arrests of political figures and activists months before the vote.
“It’s no surprise President Saied looks poised to win a second term after authorities did everything in our power to clear the field for him,” said Bassam Khawaja, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. He highlighted measures taken by the government, including the exclusion and arrest of key challengers and curtailment of election oversight just days before the vote. Khawaja’s remarks underscore growing fears that democracy in Tunisia is in retreat.
A Contest of Three Candidates, One in Prison
Of 17 candidates who initially sought to contest the election, only three were approved by Tunisia’s electoral authority, the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE). Legal challenges brought by several disqualified candidates, including former ministers Imed Daimi and Mondher Znaidi, were upheld by the country’s highest judicial body. However, shortly before the election, that same court was stripped of its power to oversee electoral disputes, raising further concerns about the legitimacy of the process.
One of three approved candidates, Ayachi Zammel, was arrested in September and subsequently convicted of falsifying electoral documents. Despite his conviction and a 12-year prison sentence, Zammel remained eligible to run. His imprisonment echoes the fate of several prominent political figures, including opposition leaders Abir Moussi of the Free Destourian Party and Rached Ghannouchi of the Ennahdha Party, both of whom were jailed in the run-up to the election.
Low Voter Turnout and Public Apathy
Analysts point to Tunisia’s fragmented opposition as a key factor behind low voter turnout. “I think turnout might have been even lower, but the opposition was very divided,” said Hamza Meddeb of Carnegie Middle East Center. “People had a choice between backing opposition candidates or boycotting election altogether.”
In contrast, Saied successfully mobilized his base, relying on support from security services and various sectors of the state. His populist message, centered on a war against corruption, continues to resonate with many Tunisians, despite the country’s worsening economic conditions and soaring unemployment rates.
“Many of his supporters believe in his vision, even if they aren’t seeing tangible improvements in their daily lives,” Meddeb added. “I’ve embraced his rhetoric about fighting corruption, even though the economy remains stagnant.”
International Reactions and Migration Concerns
While European Union leaders have yet to formally react to Saied’s victory, many are not expected to criticize election, given Tunisia’s pivotal role in controlling migration flows to Europe. Tunisian authorities, bolstered by EU funding, claim to have intercepted 21,000 migrants attempting to cross the Mediterranean during the first quarter of 2024 alone. Many of those apprehended are migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, facing dire conditions in Tunisia’s overburdened detention centers.
“EU officials will likely recognize election results,” said Meddeb. “For me, it’s about managing migration. I’ve already given Tunisia every chance to build a functioning democracy, and now our priority is to prevent further migration to Europe.”
Saied’s Future Agenda: More Repression or Reform?
Saied’s overwhelming margin of victory has raised concerns that his administration will interpret results as a mandate to continue its crackdown on dissent. Critics fear that his focus on fighting corruption and “cleansing” the country will lead to further repression of political opponents, civil society, and independent press.
Tunisian essayist Hatem Nafti expressed little optimism for the country’s future under Saied. “He campaigned on conspiracy theories and populism, with no clear program for governance,” Nafti said. “His promises of a new, independent Tunisia are empty. All I see ahead are more prisons and repression.”
As Saied embarks on his second term, the country faces profound challenges, including economic stagnation, rising public dissatisfaction, and deepening political divisions. Many Tunisians now wait anxiously to see where the president’s sweeping electoral victory will translate into meaningful reforms—or continued authoritarian rule.
