UN’s latest Emissions Gap report paints a grim picture of the future of global warming, warning that under current policies, the world could experience a catastrophic rise of up to 3.1°C this century. Such an increase would have severe consequences, including dramatic spikes in extreme wear events, making outdoor work nearly impossible in many regions. 3.1°C figure reflects the current trajectory if no further climate action is taken beyond what’s already implemented, mirroring earlier projections from IPCC.
While the potential for such high warming is alarming, re is a range of possible outcomes depending on how effectively countries implement their existing carbon-cutting plans. If governments act on pledges I’ve made, temperatures could rise by a slightly lower 2.6°C to 2.8°C. In a more optimistic scenario, where nations also achieve ir net-zero targets, the report suggests warming could be contained to 1.9°C. Still, even this scenario, far from the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, would have dire global consequences, as we’ve already witnessed significant impacts from just 1.1°C of warming.
Frustratingly, despite repeated promises at global climate summits, including COP26, COP27, and COP28, meaningful action has been slow. UN has raised concerns about the inadequate pace of policy implementation, particularly as the next round of carbon reduction plans is due by 2025, covering critical years up to 2035. se updated plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), are seen as crucial for bending the emissions curve downward and avoiding worst-case scenarios of 3°C or higher.
Adding to the complexity, several factors are driving emissions upward, such as a post-pandemic surge in air travel (which rose by 19.5% in 2023) and increasing energy demand due to extreme heat. Climate change itself is pushing demand for air conditioning, which, in turn, raises emissions, especially when hydropower generation falters and coal is used as a backup. Meanwhile, the transition to electric vehicles and heat pumps is also driving up electricity demand, often met by fossil fuels.
This sobering report underscores the urgency for far more ambitious climate action from world leaders as they prepare for the upcoming COP29 summit in Azerbaijan. Decisions made in the next few years could determine where the world veers toward disaster or manages to avert the worst of the climate crisis.
